Could we soon see Brexit betting favourite to win EU Referendum?
Yet another set of polls are showing Lead as having a lead in the EU Referendum. The Brexit betting markets have reacted, with best odds on leave now at 6/4 offered by Ladbrokes. This is in from as high as 4/1 just 3 weeks ago. In addition, The Sun, which has a readership of almost 2 million, has come out officially on the side of Brexit. It would not have done that if it was not confident that there was a good chance of Brexit being the final outcome. The Sun has famously never called a General Election wrong. The question on many people’s lips now is whether as a result of this momentum shift, we could soon see a Brexit betting favourite?
The most recent six polls that have caused this recent surge are
- IPSOS Mori poll for the Evening Standard. This is the most recent poll (published June 16th) and shows a 6 point lead for Leave, with 53 percent for Leave and 47 percent for Remain, exclusing Don’t Knows. This is the first time this respected poll has shown a lead for Leave.
- ComRes/The Sun poll is 46% Remain and 45% Leave. Last month showed an 11 point lead by Remain. When ‘Don’t Knows’ are removed, its 51% Remain and 49% Leave
- TNS Poll shows Leave with a 7 point lead. 47 percent of likely voters said they will vote to leave the EU, compared to 40 percent who will vote Remain. In their previous poll they showed a 2 point lead for Leave, so this latest poll shows a 5 point move towards Leave.
- Guardian/ICM poll showing Leave with a 6 point lead. Brexit has grown to 53% with the Remain campaign falling to 47% – once ‘don’t knows’ have been removed. This is both online and phone polls.
- Time/YouGov poll has reported 7 point lead for the Leave campaign, with Leave on 46% (up 3% on previous poll) and Remain on 36% (down 3%)
- Telegraph/Orb poll is showing 49% Leave and 48% Remain among those saying they are certain to vote. That is a 2% increase for Leave. When also including those that are not certain to vote, Remain has a 5 per cent lead (49% vs 44%) but that itself is down from a 12 per cent lead reported in the previous such survey.
William Hill are of the view that the momentum is so strong that it if the trend continues it is inevitable that Leave will become favourite fairly soon. The William Hill media relations director Graham Sharpe is quoted as saying
“We were forced to shorten our Brexit odds yet again overnight,” he said “and having once been long-odds outsiders the odds have now come all the way down. The momentum is such that it seems inevitable Brexit will be favourite by the weekend if this trend continues. About 72% of all the bets we have taken since we first opened our book have been for Brexit,” he said, “and if that were to be translated to voting patterns it would be all over.
If we do soon see a Brexit betting favourite, does this mean that the final result will be a win for Brexit? Perhaps not, but at the very least, those that took up our betting recommendation from much earlier in the campaign, should be in a position to lock in a quite sizeable profit on their stake