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Brexit Betting Markets – Updated June 21st with Latest Odds

Brexit Betting Markets – Updated June 21st with Latest Odds

As we approach D-day and the June 23rd EU Referendum vote, we thought we would update you on all the ‘other’ Brexit markets that are on offer from  Paddy Power as well as BetFred and Ladbrokes (who have the widest range of Brexit Betting markets). All odds and markets are up to date as of June 21st.

  • EU vote range
    • Paddy Power have 50.01%-55% to vote Remain as favourite at 11/8. Second favourite is 55.01%  -55% at 15/8
    • BetFred offer slightly more generous odds for 50.01%-55% range at 7/4, though shorter odds for 55.01%-55% range at 7/4. They also have an under/over market, with threshold of 55% for voting to Remain in EU, with over at 11/10 and under at 4/6.
    • Ladbrokes also offer Remain at 6/4 for 50%-55% and 9/4 for 55%-60%.
    • Ladbrokes also have a Leave range market. The favourite is 40%-50% at 4/9. Then comes 50%-60% at 10/3. They also have an under/over market, with threshold of 46.5% for Leaving. Over is favoured at 4/5 and under are at Evens
  • Regional Results
    • You can bet on the outright vote in each of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
      • Across each of the betting companies, all the regions have Remain as favourite. The best odds are 1/50 offered by Betfred for Scotland,  1/25 offered by Paddy Power for Northern Ireland, 2/7 offered by Betfred for England,  and 2/5 offered by Ladbrokes for both Wales. So it would appear that according to the bookies the only regions with any chance of voting Leave are England and Wales.
  • Turnout
    • Paddy Power have Over 67.5%  favoured at odds of 5/4, with Under 67.5% also at 4/7
    • BetFred use 69.5% as their threshold with Over and Under at 5/6
    • BetFred also have a turnout range market with favourite being 65%-70% at 2/1
    • Ladbrokes use 70.5% as their threshold with Under favoured at 8/11 and Over is Evens
    • Ladbrokes also have have turnout range market with favourite being 70%-80% at 5/4 (a few weeks ago 60-70 was favourite)
  • UK vs Scotland. Odds that UK overall will vote to leave and Scotland to stay
    • This is the result that could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom, with the SNP likely to call for a new Sottish Independence referendum off the back of such a result.
    • The odds of this happening according to  Ladbrokes is 10/3.
  • Other Brexit Betting Markets
    • Ladbrokes have a number of other specials
      • Remain wins & turnout over 70% is 6/5
      • Remain wins & turnout under 70% is 5/4
      • Leave wins & turnout over 70% is 7/1
      • Leave wins & turnout under 70% is 11/2
      • Cameron to be replaced as PM by 1st July 2016 is 8/1 (Betfred have same market with slightly less generous 6/1)
      • Any Tory MP to defect to UKIP in 2016 is 4/1
      • Boris Johnson to be PM by 1st Jan 2017 is 8/1
      • Second referendum to be held before July 2017 is 10/1 (Betfred have same market  also at 10/1)
      • England votes Leave but UK vote Remain is 3/1
      • Turnout under 50% and leave wins is 33/1
      • Less than 1% majority for either side is 16/1
      • Turnout higher than Scottish Independence Referendum (84.6%) is 10/1
    • Betfred have these other specials
      • David Cameron to switch to Leave at 100/1
      • Boris Johnson to switch to Remain at 50/1
      • Remain and Vote percentage under 69.5 at 11/8
      • Remain and Vote percentage over 69.5 at 11/8
      • Leave and Vote percentage under 69.5 at 13/2
      • Leave and Vote percentage over 69.5 at 13/2

Latest Brexit Odds Comparison table with Winner and % Remain Vote below

Winner Odds Comparison

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% Remain Vote Odds Comparison

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