Brexit Betting Odds – First sign of movement towards Leave (Updated June 2nd)
Something interesting is happening in the Brexit betting odds markets. For the first time since the campaign started, the odds have lengthened for Stay and Shortened for Leave. Stay is still a heavy favourite, but if this momentum continues that will not be the case for much longer.
The recent market move has seen best odds for Stay of 3/10 offered by Ladbrokes, in from 1/7 last week. The best odds for Leave are now 11/4, in from 9/2 last week.
What is the reason for move in Brexit Betting Odds towards Leave?
Part of the reason behind this shift away from Stay is a general feeling that the odds had got too short and there was value to be had on backing Leave at the odds being offered. Not necessarily that Leave will win, but there is value to be had, with the expectation that the odds will move towards Leave and you will be able to take a profit. And it appears that this may be starting to happen.
In line with this, bookmakers have reported receiving more bets on Leave than Stay for the first time since the campaign began. Over 80% of bets over the last few days have been on Leave, which is the reverse of the last few weeks when over 90% of bets were on Stay. Many of the bets on Leave are in the thousands of pounds.
Coral spokesman David Stevens said
“At the end of last week, stay was at 7-1 on and leave at 4-1, which in betting terms is more or less done and dusted. Over the weekend, the money just came rushing in for leave. It is now at 2-7 stay and 5-2 leave. Over the last 72 hours, 80 per cent of the money we have taken has been for leave. From being a race that looked virtually over, it is now in the balance.”
On the same line Matthew Shaddick from Ladbrokes is quoted as saying
“Tuesday saw the biggest move in the Referendum betting markets since the campaign began. In the space of 24 hours, the odds for Leave tumbled from 7/2 to 5/2, meaning that the chances of a Brexit vote are now 27%, up from 21%. Ladbrokes had seen a big spike in bets on Leave last week and the most recent polls backed up the increased confidence from Brexit backers.”
William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said:
“A sudden stream of bets from Exeter to Oldham, and many points in-between, and even from as far away as Finland has forced down the ‘Leave’ odds. It is the most intensive spell of support for ‘Leave’ since the Referendum date was announced. Over 70% of all the bets we have taken on the outcome are for ‘Leave’ but in the last twenty four hours it is over 85%.”
In addition, the most recent ORB poll has shown that the Stay lead has reduced from 13 points last week to just 5 points this week. The explanation behind the poll change is that the immigration issue is finally hitting home, with concerns of the number of immigrants from Europe coming into the UK and the impact on jobs and the economy.
Two Guardian/ICM polls also show 4 point leads for Leave. Significantly this includes both a Phone poll and an online poll, when previously it was only the online polls that shows leads for Leave. We had written an article on the difference between phone and online polls, and believed that more attention should be given to the Online polls. If we now have evidence that the phone polls are also showing leads for Leave, then perhaps it is time to really sit up and pay attention.
Does this represent a Betting Opportunity?
While the odds have shifted slightly, Stay is still a strong favourite with the bookmakers, which is at odds with the opinion polls. This discrepancy between the polls and the betting markets tells us there is value to be had. This confirms our proposition, that at least for the betting man, backing Leave is the correct move to make at this point.
Brexit Betting Odds Comparison Tables
The latest Brexit betting odds can be found in the below Brexit betting odds comparison table. We have tables for (a) Remain vs Leave result, and (b) Remain Vote Percentage.
Click Odds, to take you to the bookmaker’s site.
Brexit Result Betting Odds Comparison Table
Brexit REMAIN Vote Percentage Betting Odds Comparison Table[table “17” not found /]
Quick guide to navigating through to each Bookmaker’s Brexit Betting Odds page
- Ladbrokes> A-Z Sports> Politics
- William Hill> DIRECT LINK. Just click relevant odds from above table
- Coral> Non Sports A-Z > Political Specials
- BetFred> Sports > Politics > UK Politics
- PaddyPower> DIRECT LINK. Just click relevant odds from above table
- BoyleSports> DIRECT LINK. Just click relevant odds from above table
- Betfair> DIRECT LINK. Just click relevant odds from above table
- Bet365> Specials > United Kingdom