Online vs Phone Brexit Polls Betting Market
Latest Brexit Article: Brexit Betting Odds show first sign of Stay odds lengthening (May 31st)
Ed Fulton, the political trading spokesman at Sporting Index, recently highlighted in an article the significant difference in the results published for Brexit polls conducted online relative to those conducted by phone. He asks the questions, which one should be believed and how does that relate to the betting market.
What do the opinion polls say?
To date, of the 21 phone polls carried out this year, they have all shown a lead for Stay, with the exception of one.
Taking an average of all these phone polls it shows Stay having a lead of 10%. That is significant, and likely where the betting markets are taking their lead when they are making Stay as the overwhelming favourite.
However, as Ed observes, when you look at the Brexit polls conducted online this year, they actually show on average a lead for Leave.
Not a large lead, but a lead nonetheless. Just looking at the last 10 online polls, the majority (7) have shown a lead for Leave. It seems to be accepted wisdom that phone polls are more accurate than the online version. The logic being that completing an online survey is too easy. They are therefore not treated as seriously as a phone poll when you are speaking with an actual person.
The question from a betting punter’s perspective is whether that is correct. Or if not is there a betting opportunity to be exploited.
Is it valid to ignore Brexit Polls conducted online when considering betting odds?
Ed has reviewed the polls relating to the recent race for Mayor of London. He found the polls that most accurately reflected the final outcome were in fact Online polls. The final result in the London Mayoral elections was 57% for Sadiq Khan and 34% for Zac Goldsmith. The only polls to predict exactly that result were online surveys produced by Opinium and YouGov.
The reason this is important from a betting perspective is that the bookmakers are currently showing Stay as heavy favourites. Current best odds are 3/10 offered by BoyleSport. The best odds currently available for Leave are 11/4 offered by Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Betfred.
This implies that according to the bookmakers the result of the referendum is almost certainly going to be to Stay. Which seems to indicate that the online polls are not being considered by the betting market.
The question for the punter is whether the betting market is correct to ignore the online polls.Or if in fact this represents a betting opportunity where a value bet can be made backing Leave.
We at Novelty Bets team are firmly of the view that the market is overly skewed towards Stay and have published several articles to that effect.
Brexit Betting Tip / Recommendation from Novelty Bets Team
While we at Novelty Bets agree on balance that Stay should be favourite, it should be favourite at odds of perhaps 4/6, not the 3/10 best odds currently on offer.
We therefore continue to recommend (in fact even more strongly given the recent movement of the betting market even further towards Stay) to back Leave at current best odds of 11/4 with either PaddyPower, Ladbrokes or Betfred
With the view to either closing out for a profit if and when the betting market cottons on and the odds shift away from Stay, or riding it out to the end if you feel brave enough.