EU Referendum Odds Shifts Again After New Polls
Another day, another poll and another twist in this never-ending EU Referendum story. With a new Independent poll showing a huge swing by the Leave Campaign of over 10% the EU Referendum odds once again move, albeit slightly. The poll, taken online by ORB, surveyed 2000 people and found that 55% of people believe the UK should leave the EU, with 45% wanting to remain. This shows a 4 point move both ways.
The ORB survey highlights the stark generational differences over the EU. Seven out of 10 people aged 18-24 back Remain and 30 per cent Leave. Support for Leave rises up the age scale to 64 per cent among those aged 55 and over (figures weighted for turnout). Crucially, just over half (56 per cent) of 18-24 year-olds say they will definitely vote, compared to more than 80 per cent of those aged 55 and over.”
The Brexit odds had steadied around 3/1 recently but this new poll and rumours that the Remain campaign are panicking have seen the betting shorten to 7/4 in most places – and as short as 8/5 with some bookies. Remain odds, although still clear favourites, are lengthening to 4/9. However whether this momentum towards ‘Leave’ is seen as significant to Remain is still to be ascertained.
The financial markets seem to be bracing themselves. The FTSE-100 fell by 1.86% on Friday – its biggest one-day fall since the start of the EU Referendum campaign and the pound also dropped sharply. Brexit also saw another big name join them as entrepreneur Sir James Dyson backed the Leave campaign
The latest YouGov poll has Brexit at 43% with Remain 1 point less at 42%.
- The Guardian/ICM has just released a new poll showing Leave with a 6 point lead. Brexit has grown to 53% with the Remain campaign falling to 47% – once ‘don’t knows’ have been removed. This is both online and phone polls.
- Sam Coates of The Times has tweeted a 7 point lead in The Time/YouGov poll:
Exclusive – Leave campaign open up a 7 point lead in latest Times/YouGov #EUref poll
Leave 46% +3
Remain 39% -3
DK 11% nc
WNV 4% nc
— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) June 13, 2016
- The Telegraph/Orb poll is showing 49% Leave and 48% Remain
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 48 (=)
LEAVE 49 (+2)
REMAIN 49 (-3)
LEAVE 44 (+4)
— NCP EU Referendum (@NCPoliticsEU) June 13, 2016
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