EU Referendum Odds on Leave continue to Shorten
Following up from last week, more EU Referendum opinion poll have come out showing leads for Leave. Does this signify a momentum shift for the UK to leave the EU?
EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls
The latest YouGov poll commissioned by ITV’s Good Morning Britain, shows Leave with a 4 points lead, with Leave at 45 per cent and Stay at 41 per cent.
The latest Opinium poll, commissioned by the Observer shows the Leave campaign with a three point lead over Stay, at 43 per cent versus 40 per cent, respectively.
Taking the average of the last 6 polls, Leave has a lead of 2 points over Stay at 51 to 49. This is the first time this has happened, and indicates the race is now too close to call.
EU Referendum Odds – Latest
These opinion polls are now being reflected in the betting markets. Bookmakers are reporting for the first time that they are receiving more bets on Leave than they are on Stay, and as a result have adjusted the EU Referendum odds accordingly. As per the below EU Referendum Odds comparison table, the best odds you can now get on Stay is 2/5. To think that just 10 days ago the best odds were 1/6, this is a significant change. Similarly the best odds you can now get on Leave is 9/4 with Betfair down from 4-1 at the end of last month.
Notwithstanding the shift in the betting markets, at 2/5 they are still showing Stay as strong favourites, despite the polls suggesting that if anything they should both be around Evens money. Does this represent a betting opportunity, with the expectation that the leave odds will continue to shift out? We actually think it does. The movement in the Betting Odds is one way towards Leave, and it would not be a surprise to see Leave favourite at some point prior to the actual vote.
William Hill also agree, having seen a flurry of bets on Leave.
‘Monday has been a one-way traffic day in the EU Referendum market, with the overwhelming proportion of bets placed on ‘Brexit’ for amounts of up to £600.’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.’If the swing continues at this rate it is not impossible that ‘Brexit’ could touch favouritism before June 23. 71% of all individual bets taken are for ‘Brexit’, which is now a six figure loser for us, albeit 70% of actual stake money is for ‘Remain.’
Remember you do not need to believe that Leave will win, to make it worthwhile taking the current odds. You just need to believe that the price on Stay is over value and will lengthen. As long as that happens you will be able to close out your bet for a profit. At least that is the theory!