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Conservative leadership: Betting odds & poll predictions

Conservative leadership: Betting odds & poll predictions

As we head into the final straight of the Conservative Leadership contest, Theresa May is strong favourite to take over from David Cameron as Prime Minister.

May received 199 votes in the second ballot which is well over half the number of Tory MP’s that voted. However it isn’t that simple. In the final round , it is not the MP’s that decide but the Tory membership.

Could we have a similar situation to Labour where the membership and the Parliamentary Party are not in synch? The early indications are strongly that we will not.

What do the members think?

A recent opinion poll of Conservative party members, which was carried out last weekend for the Times by YouGov. showed Theresa May all of 32 per cent ahead of Andrea Leadsom and more than 50 per cent ahead of Michael Gove. Leadsom led Gove by 33 percent. With Gove now eliminated the indications are that among Tory members Theresa May has a large lead. Things can always change in politics as we have seen over recent weeks and months, but that is a strong base for May to work from.

Which candidate would do best in General Election?

In the same opinion poll, the general public (not just Tory members) were asked who would be the best Prime Minister and again May came out heavily on top with 43 percent. Only 8 percent backed Andrea Leadsom.

Similarly when asked which leader would make you more likely to vote Conservative, May attracted 28% and Leadsom only 10%.

Conservative Party Leader betting odds

The betting markets also show Theresa May as the strong favourite to win the contest, though given the failure of the betting markets to predict the EU Referendum result, this does need to be taken with a huge dose of cynicism.

Theresa May is available at best odds of 1/4, while Andrea Leasdom’s best odds are  7/2 via Bet365.

Latest Conservative Leader Betting Odds

See the Odds Comparison table below, which shows all the contenders and their odds across the betting market.  Click Odds to take you directly to the Bookmakers site.

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