Fox Poll – Trump Leads Clinton
A Poll published by Fox on May 17th, shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton assuming the two are pitted against each other in this November’s US Election.
45% of respondents said they would vote for Trump vs 42% who would vote for Clinton. While only a 3 point lead, which is within the margin of error, it does show a marked growth in support towards Trump.
In the last Fox poll published in April, Clinton was at 48% and Trump at 41%. So that is a large swing towards Trump, and at the very least shows that he will be a real contender this Autumn.
Drilling down into the detail of the poll, it shows that Trump is ahead by 10+ points for Male voters. Clinton is similarly ahead among women, though not by as much as Trump is for men. Trump is ahead with White voters, leading by over 20 points, Clinton is even further ahead when it comes to African American and Hispanics.
Interestingly, the poll shows neither candidate is held very favourably in the public#s opinion in terms of their trustworthiness or likability. It seems a case of best of a bad bunch, rather than overwhelming enthusiasm for either candidate. That does open the possibilities of an independent candidate entering the arena and posing a serious challenge to Trump and Clinton.
Betting Odds Market for US President Election
While Trump is looking to have gained momentum in the polls, we take a look at the betting markets, which appear to still show Clinton as the overwhelming favourite. The best odds you can get on her winning are 4/9 through Betfred. The best odds available on Trump are 5/2 from Ladbrokes. These odds are virtually unchanged from a few weeks ago.
This is all very similar to the EU Referendum, where the polls have shown Stay and Leave as neck and neck, while the betting market has consistently shown Stay as the strong favourite.
At Novelty Bets our view is (as per previous Trump vs Clinton article), while ultimately Trump may not win the actual election, at the very least we expect the odds on him winning to narrow between now and November.
Our view is further emboldened by the news of this Fox Poll showing a 3 point Trump lead. The betting odds have not reacted to this, but the momentum seems to be going towards Trump. Our recommendation therefore is that it is worth backing Trump at current odds, with aim of closing out later on the expectation that odds will shorten.
To see all the latest odds across the US President Election betting market, take a look at our Odds Comparison table (* indicates best available odds). Click on Odds to take you directly to bookmaker.