New York Primary Impact on Trump’s Election prospects
In a previous article I recommended betting AGAINST Trump winning the Republican nomination (US Election Betting Strategy). I saw an interesting related article in Betfair on the latest status of the Republican nomination race. It suggests that today’s New York primary might give momentum to Trump’s campaign. However, it is still likely to go to Contested Convention which gives Cruz advantage.
A Contested Convention – which will occur if no candidate reaches the magic number of 1237 delegates – remains highly likely, rated at 1.28 (78%). Trump is expected to take most, or even all of New York’s 95 delegates, but still may fall short. According to Fivethirtyeight’s current expert projection, he will finish on 1174. (Source Betfair)
Tonight is the New York primary, which Trump is expected to win comfortably, to regain some momentum. The question is whether that will be enough for him to get back onto the front foot. Gaffes such as referring to the September 11th attacks as 7/11 instead of 9/11 will not help (Trump 7/11 Mix Up). However the expectation is that New York will work in Trump’s favour, though not decisively so and my betting recommendation still stands.
Predicting how these unbound delegates will behave is extremely complex and probably depends on just how close to 1237 he gets. If that 1174 figure is accurate, Trump will need to win over 63 delegates – drawn from a pool of party members that largely distrust, even despise him. (Source Betfair)
Full Betfair article can be found in below link