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US Presidential Election Odds: Betting market ahead of Pundits

US Presidential Election Odds: Betting market ahead of Pundits

One lesson that has been learned over the last year, with the ascendancy of Donald Trump as the GOP candidate for US President, is that the rules of politics have changed. Every time Trump has said something politically incorrect or downright offensive, the experts have proclaimed that this will be the end for his chances. Instead, the larger the ‘foul up’ the shorter become the US Presidential Election Odds for Trump to win.

In all this, what has become apparent is that the betting companies are ahead of the expert pundits when it comes to predicting the ascendancy of Donald Trump. The reason being that betting odds are determined by simple laws of supply and demand. With millions of people placing millions of pounds betting on the outcome, the bookmakers have a much better idea of what the general public are thinking, and they adjust the odds accordingly.

Look at what as happened over the last year.

June 16th: Trump accuses Mexicans of being criminals. At this point he was a 100-1 rank outsider

July 18th: Trump makes fun of John McCain’s history as war hero and ex prisoner of war. His odds go down to 50-1

August 6th:  After insulting Megyn Kelly with an outrageous sexist slur (‘blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of everywhere’) Trump’s odds improved to 20-1. 

December 7th: Trump proposes banning Muslim immigration. What happens to his betting odds? You guessed it, down to 6-1.

And so it goes down. Buoyed by success in the primaries the US Presidential Election odds on him winning have steadily dropped to the point he is now best priced 2-1 (via Betfair) to become the next US President.

As far as Trump is concerned, all publicity is good publicity, no matter how controversial. In fact, the more controversial the better for him. The more outrageous his utterances, the more supporters he attracts. This is because he becomes the story, the center of attention, detracting from his opponents. This is how the new politics seems to be working.

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With all the attention Trump was getting on the news, more people bet on him winning, and the bookmakers adjusted their odds, which continued to get shorter to the point where they are today. As we get close to Election day, the expectation is that more will be bet on this election than any other political event in history. It is predicted that in access of GBP 100 million will be waged.

As Ladbrokes spokesman Alex Donohue says

“This race will be the biggest political betting event, globally, of all time. Interest here in the UK has been off the charts,” said Alex Donohue  a spokeman for Ladbrokes. Despite the EU referendum outcome being vastly more significant to daily lives of your average British punter (gambler), there are millions more being wagered on your White House race.”

US Presidential Election Odds – What happens next?

So where do we go from here? As per previous articles we have published, we believe there is still value to be had in the Trump machine, and expect his odds to shorten further to the point where it is Evens money on him winning the election. He might still not end up winning, but the shrewd punter who picked him up at much longer odds, will be able to cash out for a tidy profit.

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See below latest betting odds in our live updated Odds Comparison Table (* indicates best available odds). Click on Odds to take you directly to bookmaker.

 
Hillary Clinton2/111/61/62/111/71/5*2/11
Donald Trump4/14/14/15/1*9/27/29/2

 

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