Race for Nomination is Over (nearly)
We have been entertained over the last few months by the US Primaries and the contest for nomination as the US Presidential Election Candidate for the Republican and Democrat parties.
With the latest set of primary results, despite a narrow victory for Sanders in West Virginia, Clinton is looking more certain to become the Democrat nominee. It’s not good enough for Sanders to have narrow wins. He needs to win most of the remaining states with a sizable majority and that is not going to happen.
We already know that Trump will be the Republican nominee with all his rivals having pulled out. Despite his rivals having officially pulled out of the race, they were still on yesterday’s ballot, and predictibally only garnered a small percentage of the vote.
Who would have thought Trump would end up become the Presumptive nominee BEFORE Hillary? He started out a 200-1 long shot. Only Leicester winning the Premier League was less likely to occur. It’s mind boggling.
Trump vs Clinton – US Presidential Election race
But it’s time to move on to the real race. The one for President of the USA. Hillary vs The Donald.
So what do we think is going to happen in the US Presidential Election? I can not believe I am saying this. But we are jumping on the Trump bandwagon. While we don’t think he will end up actually winning, we do believe there are going to be some shocks on the way, and the race will tighten to the point where Clinton is only a narrow favourite.
As things stand some polls are showing the race neck and neck. In fact the latest Ipsos / Reuters poll (from May 10th) showed Clinton on 41%, Trump on 40%, with the remainder undecided.
Other polls asking which candidate people will vote for in the US Presidential Election, have shown Clinton with a large lead. So either this Ipsos poll is an anomaly. Or there has been a large recent move following Trump’s rivals pulling out of the race. Or perhaps somewhere in between.
We believe the latter, and the true Clinton lead is around 5%. That is easily surmountable, as Trump showed from where he started with the Republican nomination race.
So our recommendation (and we wish we had made this last week when the odds were closer to 4/1 for Trump) is to back Trump at 5/2 to win the US Presidential Election, and wait for those odds to narrow at which point you either close out for a profit or let it ride all the way to the bitter end.
President Trump. Who would have thunk it?