US President Election Overview
Where do I start on this? It seems like politics is being turned upside down and inside out. First we have the ultra left wing Jeremy Corbyn becoming Leader of the UK Labour Party. Now we have reality TV presenter Donald Trump as strong favourite to become the Republican Presidential nominee, with potentially a serious shot at winning the US President Election and actually becoming the next U.S. President, and de facto most powerful person in the world.
Even on the Democrat side, Bernie Sanders, as close to left wing Jeremy Corbyn like politician as the U.S. is ever likely to have, is putting up a good run against Hillary Clinton. The US presidential election is taking a strange turn. How did we get to this point?
I think the answer is simple. It’s called anti politics. The public are so fed up with the lies, bluster and spin they are used to hearing from the political establishment, that they are magnetically attracted to anyone who does not conform, and appears to tell it how it is rather than put spin on it.
DONALD TRUMP TELLS IT LIKE IT IS
This applies equally to the right of politics as it does the left. The perception is that Donald Trump tells as it like it is and doesn’t give thought as to the ‘right’ thing to say from an electoral perspective. The result is that whatever he does say becomes the right thing. Excoriate immigrants, women, fellow politicians, threaten death and destruction beyond anything previously imagined for the enemies of the U.S. The American public listen to that and a good percentage say to themselves that is exactly what I was thinking but was too scared to say out loud. I’m going to vote for this guy. He may alienate large parts of the population, but equally attracts others. On the right wing Republican side of the political divide that puts him in a very strong position.
HOW ABOUT THE US PRESIDENT ELECTION?
Where that puts him in terms of the overall electorate has not yet been tested. My belief is that when taking into account swing voters who voted Democrat last time, he is going to struggle to attract them in sufficient numbers and in fact will deter enough Republican swing voters to make him unelectable in a general election. This is what the Republican elite know which is why they are doing so much to try to derail Trump’s campaign.
The problem from a Republican perspective is the more they try to smear Trump the more solid his support, among Republican party members seems to become. They have however recently begun to make inroads, and it is looking increasingly possible that while Trump will have the most delegates convention time, he will not reach the magic 1,237 that he needs to automatically be the Republican nominee and move on to the US President Election.
This would take us into July and Contested Convention territory allowing (and this depends on the rules of each state – it’s quite complicated and I won’t go into the detail here) the delegates to vote, after the first ballot, according to their conscience as opposed to being bound to the results of the state’s Primary. If that were to happen en masse, then Trump might struggle to be the nominee.
Here are the current US President odds via Betfair. Click here to open an account with a £10 bet and receive £30 in free bets (t&cs apply)