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US Republican Nomination:Update on Betting Strategy

Trump will win the US Republican nomination

In a previous article on the US Republican nomination race we have recommended betting AGAINST Trump winning the Republican nomination. That was on the basis that at the time it was odds on (1.33 from Betfair Exchange) that Trump would not get enough delegates (ie the magic 1,237) to prevent a contested convention.

Assuming we were to get to a contested convention our prediction was that the odds would then shift sharply against Trump. At the time the odds for Trump to win the Republican nomination was 8/15.

Since then there have been several primaries in the North East where Trump performed better than expected. The polls are also showing that Trump is favourite in some of the upcoming key Primaries.

This has changed the math to make it now unlikely that we will have  a contested convention. This is borne out in the latest betting odds where Betfair Exchange now offer 3.94 (equivalent of 3/1) for a contested convention occurring instead of  1.33 when the original strategy to bet against Trump was recommended. The overall odds for Trump to win the nomination as offered by Betfair are now 1/6.

This could all change were Cruz to win Tuesday’s Primary in Indiana. This really is last chance saloon for the anti Trumpers (not that they will yet admit it, hanging on to hopes for California). However the latest polls are showing a large Trump lead in Indiana. Betfair Exchange offer a paltry 1.05 (equivalent of 1/20). As close to a dead cert as you are likely to see. On that basis, I have to rescind the recommendation.

One thing I am sure of though. Trump has no hope in the upcoming Presidential Election against Hillary. But we will come to that another time!

These odds and more US political betting can be found at Betfair Exchange

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