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Eurovision Final Betting Tips, Odds and Predictions

Eurovision Final Betting Tips, Odds and Predictions

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So the Semi Finals are over, and we know who has reached the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest. Before we get to our Eurovision Final Betting Tips and predictions, we first wanted to briefly reflect on the Semi Finals.

Each Semi Final had its ‘big’ surprise. In the first it was Iceland not qualifying. We still do not understand that. In the second it was Norway not qualifying and Georgia doing so instead. Not so much a surprise about Norway, more one of Georgia getting to the final. Though good luck to them we say. It was actually a good song and performance, just not one we thought would be appreciated by Eurovision audiences.

In our predictions and Eurovision betting recommendation we at Novelty Bets did pretty well. We predicted 8 of the finalists in the first Semi Final 1 and 9 of the finalists in the second Semi Final.

Also our recommendation of Austria at 13/8 in Semi Final 1 came up trumps, though we were not so lucky with our 10/11 recommendation of Norway.  You win some, you lose some, as they say. Anyone backing our betting tips and predictions would still came out on top overall, which can’t be a bad thing.

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 Grand Final Preview

Which brings is to the Song Contest Grand Final and our Eurovision Final betting tips. Who is going to win? Who will finish top 3, top 10, bottom etc?

The markets are saying that it will be Russia who are victors on Saturday night. Which is very much in line with the pre tournament betting strategy recommendation we made at Novelty Bets. At that time the odds on Russia winning were a more generous 2-1.

The best Eurovision odds currently available on Russia winning are 8-13 with Coral

(Note, Coral and BoylesSport are offering a great Eurovision offer for new customers. If you open a new account with Coral or open a new account with BoylesSport and place £5 on Russia to win, you  get enhanced odds 10-1 which will be paid out in free bets. If Russia end up losing you will get a £5 free bet to place on another event.  So essentially this is a no risk £5 bet on Russia to win at enhanced odds of 10-1. Definitely recommended).

Historically 8 out of the last 11 contests have been won by the favourite. 11-8 is more than 8-11. Hence at best odds of 4-6 there is no longer the value the bet used to have. But if Russia win and you back them then you win, so might still worth be worth putting some money on even at those odds.

In terms of the rest of the betting market, there have been a few significant movers following the second semi final. that have had an impact on our Eurovision final betting tips and strategy.

In particular, Australia have fared very well, with their odds shortening to the point of their being 2nd favourites at best Eurovision odds of 14-5 with Betfair Exchange and  9-4 with Coral (and continuing to shorten as we get closer to the Saturday final).

In contrast Ukraine, who had previously positioned themselves as firm second favourites at 4-1 have seen their odds lengthening to best odds of  12-1 offered by BetfredWe believe the reason for this shift is due to (a) how well the Australia song and performance went down with the audience and (b) the Ukraine entry being a bit too dark/haunting and in some ways heavyweight for some tastes. 

The early second favourites France (and very nearly co favourites when their odds were 9-4) have moved out a lot in the betting odds. They are now fourth in the betting order. You can get them at best odds of 22-1 via Betfair Exchange and  14-1 via Coral. 

Other best odds are:

Sweden 24-1 via Betfair Exchange and 20-1 via Betfred; Armenia 56-1 via Betfair Exchange and 33-1 via Coral; Malta 51-1 via Betfair Exchange and 33-1 with Coral; Italy 104-1 via Betfair Exchange  and 100-1 via Betfred;

Eurovision Final Betting Tips

  • Our first recommendation for those who are not already either a Coral or BoylesSport Customer, is to take advantage of their Russia 10-1 enhanced odds offer where you bet £5 on Russia to win and get odds of 10-1 instead of the current market value of 4-6. Assuming Russia win you will get £50 of free bets. If you do not have either a BoyleSport or Coral account you can make this bet twice (once with BolyeSport, once with BoyleSport) and potentially win £100 worth of free bets
    •  Coral new customers click here
    •  BoyleSport new customers click here
  • Our next recommendation is in the‘Winner without Russia’ market. This has been set up by Betfair Exchange and BetfairAustralia are strong favourites at current price of 1.55 / 1-2 respectively. Ukraine are second favourites at price of 7.2  / 7-2 respectively.
    • Given the publicity around the Ukraine entry, their better place in the running order and their lack of natural friends (ie politics) Australia, we recommend backing Ukraine in this market at 7.2 via Betfair Exchange.
  • Our next recommendation is in the top 5 market. With all the pre tournament speculation, France were very much favoured with a chance of even winning. However they have faded in the Winner market, but we still believe should be able to comfortably get into the top 5. The fundamentals of a good song and good performance have not changed.
    • At Betfair Exchange you can currently get what we think are very generous odds of 2.34 (equivalent of 4-3) on France coming in the top 5.  We say grab that while you can.
  • Our final recommendation is in the last place market, where we strongly fancy Germany’s entry to win the wooden spoon.  It really is an uninspiring song and performance. We actually dislike the Georgia entry even more, but it got to the final so must have support from somewhere. There is no way Germany would have got to the Final had it been competing in either of the Semi’s (which they were not due to being one of the Big 5 who automatically go to the final)
    • You can get Germany to finish last at odds of  9-2 with Betfair, and we would recommend this.
    • Note Betfair have Georgia as favourites to be last place at 4-1. All the other bookmakers have Germany favourites, at average odds of 5-2. Hence we believe the Betfair odds represent very good value. Grab those odds while you can, since we suspect they will fall in line with the others in due course.

Summary of Eurovision Final Betting Tips / Recommendations

  1. If you do not yet have an account with either Coral or BoyleSport back Russia at enhanced odds of 10-1
    1. Click here for Coral
    2. Click here for BoyleSport
  2. France to come in Top 5 from Betfair Exchange at 2.34
  3. In the Winner w/o Russia market back Ukraine at 7.2 with Betfair Exchange
  4. In the ‘To Finish Last’ market back Germany at 9-2 with Betfair.

Postcript: Overall Eurovision 2016 Final Review (published Sunday 15th May after Ukraine voted as winner).

Had someone placed £10 on each of the Eurovision 2016 Final betting tips,  (and we placed a lot more – without giving away exactly how much!!), you would have ended up with net winnings of £85, plus £10 worth of free bets. That is an 850% return on the evening. Not bad !!!

Eurovision Final Running Order

The all important running order has come out. This is one of the factors taken into account when we decided our Eurovision final betting tips and predictions.

You don’t want to get an early draw, as historically the early songs have not done well, no matter how well they have been favoured before the contest. According to an American study, the final competitor to perform is more than twice as likely to win than the one who performed first.  See this Daily Telegraph Article for more detail on the impact of running order.

Of the favourites, Russia and Ukraine have the most favourable draws, at 18th and 21st respectively. Belgium and Netherlands have high hopes of doing well. Being 1st and 3rd respectively in the running order will not have helped their prospects.

Running Order:

  1. Belgium
  2. Czech Republic
  3. The Netherlands
  4. Azerbaijan
  5. Hungary
  6. Italy
  7. Israel
  8. Bulgaria
  9. Sweden
  10. Germany
  11. France
  12. Poland
  13. Australia
  14. Cyprus
  15. Serbia
  16. Lithuania
  17. Croatia
  18. Russia
  19. Spain
  20. Latvia
  21. Ukraine
  22. Malta
  23. Georgia
  24. Austria
  25. United Kingdom
  26. Armenia

Eurovision Predictions for Grand Final

Now we come to Novelty Bets predictions for the Eurovision Song Contest Grand Final. We are using the same criteria that were applied for our Semi Final predictions: (a) betting odds, (b) politics, (c) performance in Semi Finals, (d) feedback and views of Eurovision expert pundits (e) general gut feel.

On that basis in descending order our prediction of the final position is as follows:

  1. Russia
  2. Ukraine
  3. Australia
  4. France
  5. Armenia
  6. Italy
  7. Latvia
  8. Bulgaria
  9. Sweden
  10. Malta
  11. Serbia
  12. Netherlands
  13. Belgium
  14. Spain
  15. Israel
  16. Hungary
  17. Cyprus
  18. Czech Republic
  19. Croatia
  20. Azerbaijan
  21. United Kingdom
  22. Poland
  23. Austria
  24. Lithuania
  25. Germany
  26. Georgia

As a reminder, see below Novelty Bets’ Eurovision Final Betting Tips

Summary of Eurovision Final Betting Tips / Recommendations

  1. If you do not yet have an account with either Coral or BoyleSport back Russia at enhanced odds of 10-1
    1. Click here for Coral
    2. Click here for BoyleSport
  2. France to come in Top 5 from Betfair Exchange at 2.34
  3. In the Winner w/o Russia market back Ukraine at 7.2 with Betfair Exchange
  4. In the ‘To Finish Last’ market back Germany at 9-2 with Betfair.
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